Bulgaria’s Political Influence in the EU and Regional Geopolitics: Position, Challenges, and Opportunities

By Josh Harrison , 9 March 2025
Bulgaria’s Political Influence in the EU and Regional Geopolitics: Position, Challenges, and Opportunities

Since joining the European Union (EU) in 2007, Bulgaria has had an important role in regional politics and EU decision-making. However, compared to more influential Eastern European nations like Poland, Hungary, and Romania, Bulgaria’s political voice in the EU has remained relatively muted.

Despite being a strategically located country in Southeast Europe, Bulgaria has struggled to assert itself in key EU policy discussions, security matters, and regional alliances. Political instability, governance challenges, and economic dependency on the EU have limited its influence in Brussels.

This article examines Bulgaria’s political standing within the EU, its role in regional geopolitics, and the challenges it faces in asserting greater influence. It also explores potential strategies for Bulgaria to strengthen its diplomatic and political presence on the European stage.

Bulgaria’s Role in EU Institutions and Decision-Making

1. Representation in EU Institutions

  • Bulgaria has 17 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), fewer than Poland (52), Romania (33), and Hungary (21).
  • The country has had limited leadership positions in major EU institutions, unlike Poland, which has held key roles in the European Commission and European Council.
  • Bulgaria’s influence in the EU Council of Ministers is often overshadowed by larger and more assertive member states.

2. Bulgaria’s EU Presidency in 2018

  • Bulgaria held the rotating EU presidency in the first half of 2018, a role that allowed it to set the agenda for discussions on key European policies.
  • The presidency focused on:
    • EU enlargement in the Western Balkans
    • Strengthening digital innovation in Eastern Europe
    • Enhancing EU security and migration policy
  • However, Bulgaria failed to use the presidency to significantly increase its long-term political leverage in Brussels.

3. Influence in EU Policy-Making

  • Bulgaria has played an active role in agricultural policy, regional cohesion funding, and energy diversification within the EU.
  • However, in key areas like foreign policy, security, and digital transformation, Bulgaria has taken a reactive rather than proactive role.
  • Unlike Hungary and Poland, which have challenged EU policies on rule of law and sovereignty, Bulgaria has mostly aligned with mainstream EU positions.

Bulgaria’s Regional Geopolitical Role in Southeast Europe

1. The Western Balkans and EU Enlargement

  • Bulgaria has positioned itself as a strong supporter of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, advocating for the accession of North Macedonia, Albania, and Serbia.
  • The country has acted as a mediator in regional disputes, particularly in the North Macedonia-EU accession negotiations.
  • However, Bulgaria’s own veto of North Macedonia’s EU talks over historical and linguistic disputes in 2020 hurt its reputation as a constructive regional player.

2. Relations With Greece and Romania

  • Bulgaria has strong economic and security ties with Greece and Romania, both fellow EU and NATO members.
  • The three countries have cooperated on:
    • Energy projects like the Greece-Bulgaria gas interconnector
    • Security coordination through NATO
    • Infrastructure projects, including new Danube bridges with Romania
  • Despite cooperation, Bulgaria’s economic and political weight remains smaller than that of Romania, which has taken on a more assertive leadership role in regional affairs.

3. Relations With Turkey and Russia

  • Turkey is Bulgaria’s largest non-EU trading partner, and the two countries maintain complex economic and political relations.
  • Bulgaria has historically balanced its ties with Russia, but the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 forced it to align more closely with EU sanctions and NATO policies.
  • The country’s dependence on Russian energy has weakened its ability to take an independent stance in EU foreign policy discussions.

Security and Defense: Bulgaria’s Role in NATO and European Security

1. NATO Membership and Defense Commitments

  • Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004, three years before its EU accession, strengthening its position in European security.
  • The country has hosted NATO military exercises and strategic air defense operations, reinforcing its role in regional defense.
  • However, Bulgaria’s defense spending (1.8% of GDP in 2023) remains below NATO’s recommended 2% target, raising concerns over military readiness.

2. The Russia-Ukraine War and Bulgaria’s Security Policy

  • Bulgaria initially took a cautious approach to supporting Ukraine, avoiding direct military aid to avoid provoking Russia.
  • However, pressure from the EU and NATO allies led Bulgaria to send military assistance to Ukraine in 2023, marking a shift in its foreign policy.
  • The war has accelerated Bulgaria’s efforts to diversify its energy supplies and enhance military cooperation with Western allies.

3. Cybersecurity and Hybrid Threats

  • Bulgaria faces growing threats from cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and hybrid security risks.
  • The government has collaborated with EU cybersecurity agencies to combat election interference and digital threats.
  • However, Bulgaria lags behind in cyber defense capabilities, compared to Estonia and Poland, which have developed stronger digital security frameworks.

Challenges Limiting Bulgaria’s Political Influence in the EU

1. Political Instability and Weak Governance

  • Bulgaria has had frequent government changes, with over ten different administrations since 2007.
  • Political instability has weakened Bulgaria’s ability to push long-term EU policy strategies.
  • Corruption scandals and governance issues have reduced Bulgaria’s credibility in Brussels and among EU institutions.

2. Limited Economic and Diplomatic Power

  • Compared to Poland and Romania, Bulgaria has a smaller economy and weaker diplomatic networks.
  • The country lacks strong lobbying power within the EU, reducing its ability to influence European legislation and funding allocations.
  • Many EU policies are driven by economic powerhouses like Germany and France, with Bulgaria playing a secondary role in most discussions.

3. Lack of Strong Political Leadership in the EU

  • Bulgaria has not had high-profile European leaders in key positions within the European Commission or European Council.
  • Unlike Poland and Hungary, which assert themselves in EU policymaking, Bulgaria has taken a passive, compliance-driven approach.
  • The country needs to develop a stronger diplomatic presence and form alliances with other EU nations to boost its influence.

Strategies for Bulgaria to Strengthen Its Political Influence in the EU

1. Building Strategic Alliances in the EU

  • Forming closer partnerships with Romania, Greece, and the Baltic states can increase Bulgaria’s negotiating power in the EU.
  • Strengthening ties with France and Germany on economic and defense policies can improve Bulgaria’s standing.

2. Enhancing Diplomatic and Economic Presence

  • Investing in a stronger diplomatic corps in Brussels will allow Bulgaria to better promote its interests.
  • Bulgaria should leverage its energy and trade potential to play a bigger role in EU policy discussions.

3. Increasing Engagement in EU Policy Debates

  • Taking a proactive stance on issues like migration, climate change, and digital policy will increase Bulgaria’s visibility.
  • Supporting EU defense integration and cybersecurity cooperation will strengthen Bulgaria’s position in security discussions.

4. Strengthening Domestic Governance and Political Stability

  • Addressing corruption and judicial inefficiencies will improve Bulgaria’s credibility in EU institutions.
  • Developing a long-term national strategy for EU engagement will ensure more effective policy continuity.

Conclusion

Since joining the EU, Bulgaria has played a moderate role in European politics, focusing on economic development and regional stability. However, the country has not capitalized on its full potential to shape EU policies and regional geopolitics.

To increase its influence, Bulgaria must strengthen its alliances, improve governance, and engage more actively in EU decision-making. By taking a strategic and proactive approach, Bulgaria can enhance its position as a key player in European politics and security in the coming years.

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